That time of year is upon us! The Oscars are almost here! I’m sure you’re wondering who’s going to go home with the gold! I present to thee our picks!
Best Picture
The Big Short – Runner Up. With an original script and an important message, this film continues to gain steam as the race comes to a close. (Review here)
Bridge of Spies – Director Spielberg gets nominated for a solid film but it isn’t really a game changer.
Brooklyn – Fellow writer, Ben Bartek, enjoyed this film but the competition looks too staggering for the film to pull an upset. Currently at 50 to 1 Vegas odds. The least favored film. (Review here)
Mad Max: Fury Road – The fact that this was even nominated is a feat in itself. The academy wouldn’t normally nominate an action film so don’t think for a second that this has a chance. (Review here)
The Martian – If it wasn’t for The Revenant, I would saddle this horse in hopes that it takes the cake this year. Don’t expect it to win much (I know, it’s sad). (Review here)
The Revenant – Winner. You’ve seen the movie, right? It’s a daring revenge/drama thriller that has everyone in top form — actors DiCaprio and Hardy to cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki and director Alejandro González Iñárritu. (Review here)
Room – All previous awards ceremonies seem to favor more of Brie Larson’s performance in the film. The film itself has yet to win for Best Picture of anything. Currently at 40 to 1 Vegas odds.
Spotlight – This is an average film with a controversial subject matter. The film already received recognition, but mostly for its screenplay. Vegas odds are favoring this film but I’m still siding with The Revenant as it won a Golden Globe and BAFTA for Best Film. (Review here)
Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo – Cranston seems to be creeping up in acting categories in a variety of awards shows (namely Golden Globes for Breaking Bad) the last few years. Sadly, not only does Vegas have him at the worst odds in this category (25 to 1), but there hasn’t been much buzz surrounding Trumbo, which sits at a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Matt Damon, The Martian – What a year to pick to have an extraordinary performance. Damon fires on all cylinders in this neatly crafted space drama.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant – Winner. This is DiCaprio’s year. After being nominated multiple times in years past, this one should catapult him into legendary status. Not only that but DiCaprio already won Best Actor at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes. He’s also heavily favored at 1 to 5 odds.
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs – Runner Up. Although many skipped this Steve Jobs biopic (due to overexposure/over praise), you can’t deny Fassbender’s brilliant performance. This is the only true competition for DiCaprio. Also, if you want to see the best acting ensemble (with an impeccable script), look no further than Steve Jobs.
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl – Although Redmayne deserved an Oscar for his portrayal as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything last year, don’t expect him to win again.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Carol – Most of the adoration of this film is being garnered by Blanchett’s co-star, Rooney Mara. Expect her to have a better chance, at least in the Best Supporting Actress category.
Brie Larson, Room – Winner. Consider this a shoe in. Brie has already won a BAFTA, SAG, and Golden Globe for her stirring performance in the acclaimed film.
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy – Yes, Lawrence also won for Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Comedy at the Golden Globes. The tide is with Larson and the dramatic genre in with Room is more based.
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years – There hasn’t been enough exposure to this film, especially to the public at large. With 25 to 1 Vegas odds, don’t count on her stepping onto the stage.
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn – Runner Up. Ronan could theoretically steal this from Larson but there is simply too much momentum on Larson’s side.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Big Short – Bale is one of the best actors out there. It’s just that his performance in his latest doesn’t stand out amongst the rest. His role wasn’t necessarily ‘meaty’ and he, instead, thrived in a more nuanced role.
Tom Hardy, The Revenant – Runner Up. Hardy delivers again. This time he plays a cruel, coward of a man (John Fitzgerald) in opposition to DiCaprio’s Hugh Glass. As much as I’d like to see Hardy win, this is Stallone’s year.
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight – Ruffalo was one of the only actors that seemed to really relish his role in the overrated Spotlight movie. I don’t expect him to walk on stage and neither do Vegas odds (10 to 1).
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies – Watch out for the relative unknown. Rylance has the second best Vegas odds (7 to 5).
Sylvester Stallone, Creed – Winner. This is Stallone’s year to recapture some old Hollywood magic. Things should come full circle as Stallone was nominated for his performance of Rocky Balboa in 1977 and this time he should take home the crown. He also won Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes. He’s favored at (4 to 5).
Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight – A solid performance but not nearly enough to compete here.
Rooney Mara, Carol – Although Mara is the most favored (Vegas odds: 1 to 2), I do not believe she’ll be thanking the Academy on stage. Her competition comes from Vikander and Winslet directly.
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight – McAdams performance was more run of the mill in Spotlight. You won’t see her on stage.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl – Runner Up. Vikander has been having quite a year. For her role in The Danish Girl, she has already garnered a Screen Actor’s Guild award, a Critics Choice award and Chicago Film Critics award. Vikander is the most favored but watch out for Winslet who is on the up and up.
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs – Winner. This one is close. Winsley also won awards but at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. I believe she has the momentum to take this. Again, toss up between Vikander and Winslet.
Directing
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu , The Revenant – Winner. – Masterful directing here. I have never seen a movie quite like The Revenant. I want to make love to that movie for how vividly it was shot and how engaging the scenes were. This should be a no brainer to win and not just because I am being subjective (Vegas odds: 1 to 2).
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight – In my opinion, this director shouldn’t even be nominated. However, the film won a Satellite Award for Best Picture ,which isn’t saying much. Count on this film to have a better time in the Best Screenplay category.
Adam McKay, The Big Short – Runner Up. This film should have more mass appeal. It shines a light on a real issue that continues to affect us all. Not just that, it manages to use humor in order to better explain just how outrageous the financial crisis of 2008 (due to the sub prime housing market) really was.
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road – This was a high achievement for the 70 year old director. Look for this film to compete more in the technical categories (Sound, Editing, Special Effects).
Lenny Abrahamson, Room – There is some fight for this film but with The Big Short and The Revenant, there’d have to be a miracle (Vegas odds: 20 to 1).
Animated Feature Film
Anomalisa – Runner Up. That weird looking, animated film (directed by Charlie Kaufman) about an inspirational speaker finding love and shaking him out of his boring existence.
Boy and the World – A boy yearns to see his father again and takes a trip to a magical land. A Brazilian animated film.
Inside Out – Winner. The favorite of this years Oscars. The film depicts a Midwestern girl’s move to California and how her emotions guide her through the difficult journey. Rotten Tomatoes: 98%
Shaun the Sheep Movie – A sheep devises a way to get off a farm but the plan backfires and they must rescue their farmer/owner who has lost his memory.
When Marnie Was There – In this Japanese film, a tomboy meets a blonde girl only she can see.
Documentary (Feature)
Amy – Winner. This seems to be the most favored this year. The documentary depicts the life/death of Amy Winehouse.
Cartel Land – This is a film examining the drug problems along the US/Mexico border.
The Look of Silence – Runner Up. A man confronts the men who killed his brother during the Indonesian genocide.
What Happened, Miss Simone? – A documentary about classically trained pianist, Nina Simone, and her brutal life.
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom – A documentary about Ukraine’s unrest in 2013/2014 which called for the country’s integration with Europe which lead to a violent revolution calling for the resignation of its president.
Documentary (Short Subject) – predictions by Benjamin Bartek
Body Team 12 – Winner. Follows the perilous job of a Liberian woman who’s helping to eradicate the ebola virus. Real life heroes.
Chau, Beyond the Lines – Runner Up. – A Vietnamese child dreams of being an artist and clothing designer. But being born with defects from Agent Orange has put obstacles in the path to living a fulfilling independent life.
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah – Filmmaker Claude Lanzmann talks about his life, including his Shoah documentary from 30 years ago.
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness – An 18 year old Pakistani woman tells the story of surviving the wrath of her father and uncle in a society that includes honor killings.
Last Day of Freedom – A man tries to get his Vietnam veteran brother the help he needs when he suffers from PTSD, but has also committed a crime that could land him the death penalty.
Film Editing
*Editing can be a tricky one to judge as it is hard to gauge whether the film was edited due to the director calling the shots or the editor himself running with his creativity to better tell a story.
The Big Short – The editing in this film is commendable but didn’t really stick out with the film’s narrative.
Mad Max: Fury Road – Runner Up. For a film that took years to get made, you can’t knock the sheer amount of special effects in this (2000+).
The Revenant – Winner. The masterful editing here should take home the gold. This is close along with Mad Max.
Spotlight – Nothing puts this film above the others in this category.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Expect this film to really compete in the ‘Visual Effects’ category.
Best Cinematography
Carol – Although a gorgeous looking film, the competition is stiff.
The Hateful Eight – Expect this film to only win for Best Musical Score.
Mad Max: Fury Road. Runner Up.
The Revenant. Winner – Emmanuel Lubezki will certainly take the statue home here. The cinematography really added another dimension to the harsh, though beautiful locations in the film.
Sicario – Expect this to get 3rd place. Roger Deakins will then be 0-13 in this category.
Foreign Language Film – predictions by Benjamin Bartek
Embrace of the Serpent – Winner. Westerners encounter an indigenous tribe in the Amazon and it can’t help but change everybody. Awards voters are suckers for the most remote subjects and ostensibly profound messages. This movie has also gotten more exposure in the U.S. lately.
Mustang – Runner Up. Five orphaned Turkish sisters are having innocent fun outside with some boys when some meddlers claim their was sexual impropriety involved. This documents their struggle to break free from essentially being imprisoned, while growing closer to each other. A harrowing human experience.
Son of Saul – The story of a Hungarian Jewish man who must help dispose of the bodies of people killed in concentration camps during World War II.
Theeb – Orphaned brothers help lead a British officer through the desert during World War I.
A War – A story about the stresses of war for Danish soldiers in Afghanistan.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road – Runner Up . I only chalk this up in 2nd place because The Revenant is a better film.
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared – Never heard of the Swedish comedy? Neither have I. Expect a miracle for that film to get an award.
The Revenant – Winner. This will be close with Mad Max.
Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella – Winner. Think about the previous winners. They all had dresses on — Anna Karenina, Elizabeth: The Golden Years, and Marie Antoinette.
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road – Runner Up
The Revenant
Music (Original Score)
*I’ve also been a nerd when it comes to film music. I am aware of each of the composers’ filmography.
Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman – This film composer’s most famous work is likely American Beauty. Newman has a good chance
Carol, Carter Burwell – Burwell also did the score for another film in the Oscar race — Anomalisa. He seems to work his music into more specialty films. He actually won a Satellite award for his work in Carol but this should be Morricone’s year.
The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone – Winner. The legendary composer who also did The Good, the Bad, the Ugly, The Mission, and the Untouchables has an excellent shot to take home the golden statue. He also already won a Golden Globe award , a Critic’s Choice award, and a BAFTA award for his movie score to Tarantino’s latest film. This should be a no brainer.
Sicario, Johan Johannson – Johannson actually won an Oscar for his work in The Theory of Everything last year. Unfortunately, the competition this year is staggering.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams – Runner Up. Williams is likely the first film composer most people recognize but don’t expect him to win.
Music (Original Song)
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground . Runner Up. Be careful, this could go either way with the Spectre song.
“Writing’s On The Wall,” Spectre – Winner. This song already won a Golden Globe. Expect Sam Smith to give a speech.
Production Design (aka Art Direction)
Bridge of Spies – Runner Up.
The Danish Girl – Too much competition.
Mad Max: Fury Road – Winner. The rich, apocalyptic landscape that was utilized and further built upon should make this the easy front runner.
The Martian – Easily one of the best films of the year. Sure, it has a deep production design but more heavily relied upon nature and special effects.
The Revenant – This is actually another selling point to the film but the rich, natural landscape was more heavily relied upon.
Short Film (Animated) — predictions by Benjamin Bartek
Bear Story – Runner Up. A bear creates a living diorama about a bear who wants to escape the circus and return to his family.
Prologue – A little girl watches a couple Spartans battle a couple Athenians. Done by Richard Williams, of Who Framed Roger Rabbit.
Sanjay’s Super Team Winner. A child learns to love the Hindu gods of his father when he imagines a wild, colorful, epic battle with those gods. His father also learns to embrace his sons’s love of cartoon heroes. Very entertaining and vibrant. Highly recommended.
We Can’t Live without Cosmos – About 2 best friends doing everything it takes to become astronauts.
World of Tomorrow – A virtual tour of the future’s unfortunate secrets.
Short Film (Live Action) – predictions by Benjamin Bartek
Ave Maria – Five nuns who took a vow of silence mime their way through helping a family of Israeli settlers with a broken down car. Too cute by half.
Day One – Runner Up. Day one of an Afghan-American woman’s first job as an interpreter for the US military in Afghanistan, she must help the wife of a bomb maker deliver her baby. Full of tension and unspoken depth. It humanizes what’s happening half a world away.
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut) A German language film about a divorced dad who tries to turn his weekend visits with his daughter into full custody. He just didn’t inform anybody before acting. Too much gravity, yelling, and fighting for me.
Shok – Childhood best friends during the war in Kosovo make different life choices that end up threatening everything they cherished.
Stutterer – Winner. A man who stutters finds love online. But then he has to reveal his speech impediment when they actually meet.
Sound Editing (think creative enhancements to sounds or new sounds meant to amplify effect)
Mad Max: Fury Road – Winner. With all the production that went into this film and the years that went into it, don’t be surprised if this takes the cake.
The Martian – Another time that the film will be shut out of a category.
The Revenant – Runner Up. The action and set pieces are wholly amplified by the use of sound. It’s a particular factor that often goes overlooked.
Sicario – In my opinion, the use of sound editing in the film was too heavy handed. Placing too much emphasis on what you hear rather than what you see. In other words, it over-complimented the film.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Mark this one down for 3rd place.
Sound Mixing (think on-set sounds that are recorded)
Bridge of Spies – Too much competition.
Mad Max: Fury Road. Winner. Like I previously said, expect this film to garner a lot of technical awards.
The Martian – Too much competition.
The Revenant – Runner Up/Should Win.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – The film has a better chance in the editing category.
Visual Effects
Ex Machina – A sure stand out in cinema in 2015. At least it was nominated in an Oscar category (well, this and Best Original Screenplay) . No chance to win though.
Mad Max: Fury Road – Winner. Expect this to own this category with its reliance on more practical effects.
The Martian – I kind of feel bad for this film. It’s going to get shut out of a lot of categories.
The Revenant – Another factor in considering the film for best film of the year. However, I don’t see it overshadowing Mad Max.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Runner Up. If anyone was going to be pulling out punches in this category then expect a Star Wars film to do it.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Big Short – Winner. Adam McKay already won a BAFTA, Critic’s Choice and Writer’s Guild of America awards for Best Adapted Screenplay. He should be win this.
Brooklyn – The film hasn’t won any other awards for its screenplay. A very long shot.
Carol – The film has only won one other award for its screenplay — The New York’s Critic Circle Award for Best Screenplay. Too much competition here.
The Martian – Runner Up. Will The Martian be winless?
Room – This is running alongside Brooklyn with its chances. No awards have been given for its screenplay.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Bridge of Spies – Unlikely to win.
Ex Machina – One of my personal favorite picks of the year. Sadly, it will not win.
Inside Out – Watch out for this one. It could steal the show.
Spotlight – Winner. The momentum currently surrounding this movie should at least let them go home with one win.
Straight Outta Compton – Runner Up. This could be closer than we think. With many advocating for this film to be nominated in other categories, perhaps this might just win.